Topic No. 0 Introduction Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Nanjing, China 9:00 – 12:00 2011.12.15 (Thr) Munehiko Yamaguchi　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency 話の大きな流れ。 １．台風進路予報の改善には大きく2つの課題がある。1つは決定論的予報の更なる精度向上、もう１つは確率的予報の効果的な利用。 ２．これらの問題に取り組むために気象庁は台風アンサンブル予報を新たに運用する。 ３．数値予報システムの精度向上とアンサンブル平均による予報誤差の更なる減少で、決定論的予報をこれまで3日から5日に伸ばす。 ４．アンサンブル予報を行うことで予報の不確実性情報を提供することができる。 ５．今後の課題(T-PARCと確率予報の利用に関して) ６．まとめ

Today’s topics Basic concept of TC movement (including practice) Initial condition sensitivity of TC track prediction Observing system experiments for TC track prediction JMA Ensemble Prediction System for TC track prediction Multi-center grand ensemble using the TIGGE dataset North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast (NWP-TCTEF) Project

Laboratory experiment Observation experiment Let me introduce myself -Meteorological College- 2002.03 I graduated from the Meteorological College (4-year college, only 60 students in total) that is the affiliated organization of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). All students will work for the JMA after the graduation. Lecture Laboratory experiment Observation experiment http://www.mc-jma.go.jp/mcjma/index.htm

-NPD/JMA- 2002.04-2008.08 Global and Typhoon modeling team, Numerical Prediction Division, JMA Development of the operational Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System Development of a sensitivity analysis technique using a singular vector method Contributions to THORPEX and T-PARC related activities Contributions to WGNE intercomparison project on tropical cyclone forecasts

MPO/RSMAS 2008.08 – 2010.07 Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami I did a research on “Initial Condition Sensitivity and Dynamical Mechanism of Perturbation Growth in Tropical Cyclones”. Yamaguchi, M., D. S. Nolan, M. Iskandarani, S. J. Majumdar, M. S. Peng, and C. A. Reynolds, 2011: Singular vectors for tropical cyclone-like vortices in a nondivergent barotropic framework, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2273-2291. Yamaguchi, M., and S. J. Majumdar, 2010: Using TIGGE data to diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3634-3655.

MRI/JMA Adaptive observation for tropical cyclones 2010.08 Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, JMA My Research Interests Adaptive observation for tropical cyclones Ensemble Prediction System Vortex dynamics

Today’s topics Basic concept of TC movement (including practice) Initial condition sensitivity of TC track prediction Observing system experiments for TC track prediction JMA Ensemble Prediction System for TC track prediction Multi-center grand ensemble using the TIGGE dataset North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast (NWP-TCTEF) Project