Part 3 Macroeconomic Analysis of Finance 金融のマクロ分析 Chapter 6 Supply and Demand for Money 貨幣の供給と需要 Naotsugu HAYASHI 林 直嗣 Professor of Economics 経済学教授 Faculty.

Presentation on theme: "Part 3 Macroeconomic Analysis of Finance 金融のマクロ分析 Chapter 6 Supply and Demand for Money 貨幣の供給と需要 Naotsugu HAYASHI 林 直嗣 Professor of Economics 経済学教授 Faculty."— Presentation transcript:

1 Part 3 Macroeconomic Analysis of Finance 金融のマクロ分析 Chapter 6 Supply and Demand for Money 貨幣の供給と需要 Naotsugu HAYASHI 林 直嗣 Professor of Economics 経済学教授 Faculty of Business Administration 経営学部 Hosei University 法政大学

2 Money = a vehicle of exchange, currency Narrow Money M1 = Cash Currency + Deposit Currency (Demand Deposits) \481 trillion \74 trillion \407 trillion (2009.1) Broad Money M2 = M1 + Time Deposits (Quasi Currency) \1120 trillion \481 trillion \539 trillion M2 + CD = M2 + Negotiable Certificate of Deposits \1143 trillion \1120 trillion \23 trillion Broad Liquidity M3 + CD = M2 + CD + Postal Savings + Other Savings + Money Trust 貨幣 = 交換の媒介物、通貨 狭義貨幣 M1 ＝現金通貨＋預金通貨（要求払預金） 481 兆円 74 兆円 407 兆円 （ 2009 年 1 月） 広義貨幣 M2 ＝ M1 ＋定期性預金（ time deposit ＝準通貨） １１２０兆円 481 兆円 539 兆円 M2+CD ＝ M2 ＋譲渡性定期預金 １１４ 3 兆円 1120 兆円 23 兆円 広義流動性 M3+CD ＝ M2 ＋ CD ＋郵便貯金＋その他金融機関預貯金＋金銭信託 1. Kinds of money 貨幣の種類

3 Gold Standard ⇒ supply money to the private sector on the basis of the gold reserve. a system of issuing money warranted by the gold reserve. Paper Money Standard (Managed Currency System) ⇒ supply money discretionarily without any relation to gold reserve Money (Coin) ⇒ the government of Japan has the right of issuing coins only to the Bank of Japan, but the Bank of Japan has the right of determining the circulation amount of coins and bank notes Bank of Japan Notes ⇒ the Bank of Japan has the right of issuing Bank Notes to the private sector and the government, and plays a role of a bank of issuing bank notes 金本位制⇒一定量の金準備に対応して貨幣を市中へ供給 紙幣本位制（管理通貨制）⇒金準備に関係なく裁量的に貨幣を市中へ供給 貨幣（硬貨）⇒政府が日銀に対して発行⇒日銀が政府や市中に対して流通 日銀券⇒日銀が政府や市中に対して発行・流通、発券銀行 ２． Supply of Money 貨幣の供給

4 BOJ Loans Policy = the Bank of Japan supplies cash currency to private banks by lending BOJ loans at the official discount rate of the Bank of Japan or by discounting qualified notes and bills held by private banks at the official discount rate. the Bank of Japan corresponds in an accommodative manner to the demand for BOJ loans from private banks, ⇒ the BOJ loans are determined endogenously in this aspect Official Discount Rate Operations ＝ decreases BOJ loans by raising the official discount rate or increases them by reducing it ⇒ determine the BOJ loans exogenously 日銀貸出政策 … 公定歩合で貸出、公定割引歩合で適格手形を割り引いて日銀券発行 銀行の借入需要に対して日常は受動的（ accommodative ）に対 応 ⇒内生的 公定歩合操作＝公定歩合を上下させて日銀借入の需要を能動的に調節する ⇒この面では外生的 3. Central Bank Lending and Discount Rate Operations 中央銀行貸出と公定歩合操作

5 Open Market Operations (buying and selling operations of bonds ) Buying operation = to increase the money supply by purchasing national bonds and other bonds and notes. Selling operation = to decrease the money supply by selling national bonds and other bonds and notes They are conducted actively in the markets ⇒ determine the money supply exogenously 公開市場操作（債券売買操作） … 買いオペで日銀券の発行、 売りオペで日銀券を回収 能動的（ active ）に対応⇒外生的 準備率操作 … 準備率引き上げで流通高を制限、引き下げで流通高を緩和 能動的（ active ）に対応⇒外生的 ∴貨幣供給は内生的（ endogenous ）な部分と 外生的（ exogenous ）な部分とからなる 4. Open Market Operations 公開市場操作

6 Deposit Reserve System = Commercial banks must hold deposit reserves as checking deposits at their BOJ account according to their balances of demand deposits and time deposits. Deposit Reserve Ratio Operation = the Bank of Japan requires private banks to deposit more (or fewer) reserves by raising (or reducing) deposit reserve ratio and thereby absorbs (increases) the money supply ⇒ conduct the operation actively ⇒ exogenously ∴ the money supply consists of both endogenous and exogenous parts 準備預金制度 … 日本銀行勘定の当座預金として預金準備を積むことを商業銀行に要 請する制度 準備率操作 … 準備率引き上げで流通高を制限し、引き下げで流通高を緩和する政策 手段 能動的（ active ）に対応⇒外生的 ∴貨幣供給は内生的（ endogenous ）な部分と 外生的（ exogenous ）な部分とからなる 5. Deposit Reserve Ratio Operation 預金準備率操作

7 Supply of Cash Currency Central banks like the Bank of Japan ⇒ commercial banks ⇒ other financial institutions and business corporations ⇒ households and the general public Supply of deposit Currency Commercial banks ⇒ other financial institutions and business corporations ⇒ households and the general public 現金通貨の供給 … 日銀 ⇒ 市中銀行 ⇒ 事業法人（企業）、証券会社や保険会社等の金融機関 ⇒ 家計、一般公衆 預金通貨の供給 … 市中銀行 ⇒ 事業法人（企業）、証券会社や保険会社等の金融機関 ⇒ 家計、一般公衆 6. Money Supply Route 貨幣供給の波及経路

8 Primary deposits by firms and households ⇒ Most of them except cash reserves are lent to firms and households ⇒ derivative deposits by firms and households ⇒ D = primary deposits, R = deposit reserve ratio this infinite geometric series is written as D ＋ D( １－ R) ＋ D( １－ R) ２ ＋ D( １－ R) ３ ＋ …… ＝ D ／ R It generates as 1/R times total deposits as primary deposits D. = Credit Creation by Phillips 1/R = a credit creation multiplier 企業や家計の本源的預金 ⇒現金準備を除いて貸出⇒企業等による派生的預金 ⇒ …… 本源的預金を D 、現金準備率を R とすると、 この無限等比級数は上記の式 本源的預金 D の１／ R 倍の派生的預金を創造＝信用創造 １／ R ＝信用創造乗数 7. Credit Creation of Deposit Currency 預金通貨の信用創造

9 Adam Smith and other classical school economists ① transactions motive to demand money as a medium of exchange, determined by a money amount of transactions or income level ⇒ m ＝ m(PT) or m ＝ m(Y), m’(Y)>0 ② precautionary motive to prepare for unexpected situations in the future, determined by a money amount of transactions or income level ⇒ m ＝ m(PT) or m ＝ m(Y), m’(Y)>0 古典派 ①取引動機 … 財の取引手段として貨幣を需要するもので、取引金額 PT と取引回数、又は所得 Y が増えると 貨幣需要増加 ⇒ m ＝ m(PT) または m ＝ m(Y), m’(Y)>0 ②予備的動機 … 不測の事態に備えて貨幣を需要するもので、取引金額 PT 、 又は所得 Y が増えると貨幣需要増加 ⇒ m ＝ m(PT) または m ＝ m(Y), m’(Y)>0 8. Demand for Money 貨幣の需要

10 8B. Demand for Money 貨幣の需要 John Maynard Keynes ③ speculative motive to demand and hold money in order to purchase earning assets. When interest rates or rates of return on assets rise, we buy earning assets with money and the demand for this type of money decreases ⇒ m ＝ m(i), m’(i)<0 asset motive or portfolio selection motive ケインズ ③投機的動機 … 収益を得るために資産購入用に需要するもので、 利子率 i （ないし収益率）が上昇すると貨幣需要減少 ⇒ m ＝ m(i), m’(i)<0 資産動機または資産選択動機

11 9 ． Money Demand Function 貨幣需要関数 ① Classical School M D ＝ PY…Money demand ＝ due to transactions and precautionary motives ② Keynesian School M D ＝ L(PY ， i), or M D ／ P ＝ kY ＋ L(i), L=Liquidity preference function Real demand for money ＝ due to transactions and precautionary motives + speculative motive ＝ active balance ＋ idle balance ①古典派 M D ＝ PY… 貨幣需要＝取引動機・予備的動機による貨幣需要 ②ケインズ派 M D ＝ L(PY ， i) または M D ／ P ＝ kY ＋ L(i) L= 流動性選好関数 実質貨幣需要＝取引動機・予備的動機による貨幣需要 ＋投機的動機による貨幣需要 ＝活動残高＋遊休残高

12 10. Money Supply-Demand Balance and Quantity Theory of Money 貨幣の需給均衡と貨幣数量説 Money Supply=M, Velocity of Money=V, Price level=P, Transactions volume=T, Income=Y ⇒ Supply (Circulation) of Money=MV Demand for Money due to transactions and precautionary motives=PT or PY At equilibrium, Exchange Equation by Fisher MV=PT (V=transactions velocity), or MV=PY (V=income velocity) ⇒ P ＝ MV ／ Y Y is determined in real relations, V is constant ⇒ Money supply M determines prices P. ⇔ Quantity Theory of Money, View of monetary veil M ／ P ＝ (1/V)Y ＝ kY, k ＝ Marshallian k ⇔ Cambridge Real Balance Equation 貨幣供給量 M 、貨幣の流通速度 V 、物価水準 P 、取引量 T 、所得 Y 、貨幣供給＝ MV 取引動機と予備的動機による貨幣需要＝ PT 又は PY 需給均衡では、フィッシャーの交換方程式 MV ＝ PT(V ＝取引流通速度 ), MV ＝ PY(V ＝所得流通速度 ) ⇒ P ＝ MV ／ Y 実質所得 Y は実物世界で決まり、 V は取引慣行で一定ゆえ、 貨幣量 M を増減すると、物価 P が決定 ⇔ 貨幣数量説 … 貨幣ヴェール観 M ／ P ＝ (1/V)Y ＝ kY, k ＝マーシャルの k ⇔ ケンブリッジ実質残高方程式 Quantity Theory

13 11. Money Supply-Demand Balance and Liquidity Preference Theory 貨幣の需給均衡と流動性選好説 Keynes(1936) General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money M D ／ P ＝ kY ＋ L(i) ＝ m １ ＋ m ２ ＝ active balance ＋ idle balance Real demand for money ＝ due to transactions and precautionary motives ＋ speculative motive ① Full employment ⇒ Money demand function stands vertically L'(i) ＝ ∂L ／ ∂i ＝ 0 、 interest rate does not affect money demand ⇒ Quantity theory of money holds increase (decrease) M S ⇒ interest rate falls (rises), M/P is unchanged ケインズ Keynes （『雇用、利子、及び貨幣の一般理論』 1936 年） M D ／ P ＝ kY ＋ L(i) ＝ m １ ＋ m ２ ＝活動残高＋遊休残高 実質貨幣需要＝取引動機・予備的動機による貨幣需要 ＋投機的動機による貨幣需要 ①完全雇用状態 ⇒貨幣需要関数は垂直に立つ、 L'(i) ＝ ∂L ／ ∂i ＝ 0 、 利子率は貨幣需要に影響しない、古典派の貨幣数量説が成立 貨幣供給 M S を増減すると、利子率は低下・上昇するが、 M ／ P は不変 Liquidity Preference

14 11B. Money Supply-Demand Balance and Liquidity Preference Theory 貨幣の需給均衡と流動性選好説 ② Depression ⇒ Money demand function lies horizontally L'(i) ＝ ∂L ／ ∂i ＝ ∞ 、 Keynes’ Liquidity Trap =The flat part of L curve When the money supply M S is increased (decreased) ⇒ M increases (decreases), but the interest rate remains unchanged ③ Underemployment ⇒ the money demand curve is downward-sloping L'(i) ＝ ∂L ／ ∂i ＜ 0 、 When the money supply MS is increased (decreased) ⇒ M increases (decreases), but the interest rate falls (rises) ②不況の状態 ⇒貨幣需要関数は水平になる、 L'(i) ＝ ∂L ／ ∂i ＝ ∞ 、 利子率は下限に張り付く、 ケインズの流動性の罠（ liquidity trap ） =L の水平部分 貨幣供給 M S を増減すると、 M は増減するが、 利子率は不変 ③不完全雇用状態⇒貨幣需要関数は右下がり、 L'(i) ＝ ∂L ／ ∂i ＜ 0 、 貨幣供給 M S を増減すると、 M は増減し、 利子率は低下・上昇する Liquidity Preference

15 12. Determination of Classical Equilibrium Interest Rate 古典派の均衡利子率の決定 Demand curve for Investment fund I(i) = downward-sloping, Profit of round-about production expressed by the marginal rate of return on capital Supply curve of Investment fund S(i) = upward-sloping, consumers’ patience expressed by the marginal rate of time preference I(i) = S(i) ⇒ determine the equilibrium rate of interest i* at the equilibrium E The interest rate adjusts Savings=Investment balance ⇒ i is equal to the marginal rate of return on real capital ⇒ the natural rate of interest, theory of real interest rate = the equilibrium in the money market determines only the price level but the interest rate does not adjust the demand and supply for money 投資資金の需要曲線 I(i)… 右下がり、資本の限界収益率で表される迂回生産の利益 供給曲線 S(i)… 右上がり、限界時間選好率で表される消費者の待忍 I(i) ＝ S(i) ⇒市場均衡 E で均衡利子率 i ＊ が決定、 利子率は 貯蓄＝投資の均衡を調整 ⇒ i が実物資本の限界収益率に一致 ⇒自然利子率, 実物的利子論 = 貨幣市場の均衡は物価水準 P を決める だけで、利子率は調整機能を持たない Equilibrium Interest Rate

16 13. Determination of Keynesian Equilibrium Interest Rate ケインズ派の均衡利子率の決定 Demand curve for Funds I+L = downward-sloping Supply curve for Funds S+M = upward-sloping I+L = S+M ⇒ determines the equilibrium rate of interest i* the interest rate adjusts the demand and supply of funds in the money market to bring about equilibrium ⇒ the money rate of interest, theory of monetary interest, loanable fund theory Ohlin, Robertson 資金の需要曲線 I ＋ L… 右下がり 供給曲線 S ＋ M… 右上がり I ＋ L ＝ S ＋ M ⇒市場均衡 F で均衡利子率 i ＊ が決定、 利子率は貨幣市場の資金需給を均衡させるよう に調整 ⇒貨幣利子率（ monetary rate of interest ）、 貨幣的利子論、貸付資金説 … オリーン、ロバートソン Real & Monetary Interest Rats