Macroeconomics マクロ経済学

Presentation on theme: "Macroeconomics マクロ経済学"— Presentation transcript:

1 Macroeconomics マクロ経済学
Chap.11 National Income and National Accounting 第１１章．国民所得と国民経済計算

2 National accounts = measuring and calculating these national incomes
　Important indicator to measure the level of the economic activity of one country as a whole = National Income Individual household's personal income and corporate income of individual companies etc. are aggregated in one country as a whole Production side⇒ Produced National Income= total income obtained by producing and selling products and services Distribution side ⇒ Distributed National Income= total income distributed as wages, salary, corporate income to workers, managers and corporations Expenditure side⇒ Expended National Income= total amount of money spent on goods and services which are necessary for living and production Principle of three-sided equivalence of national income = each amount is equivalent from any side National accounts = measuring and calculating these national incomes Micro economics = price analysis = analysis of economic activities of individual economic subjects such as consumers and firms Macroeconomics = income analysis = analysis of aggregate economic activity of the whole country’s economy 一国経済全体の活動水準を測る重要な指標＝国民所得 　個々の家計の個人所得や個々の企業の法人所得などを一国全体で集計 生産面⇒生産国民所得、生産した商品やサービスを販売して得た所得の合計 分配面⇒分配国民所得、労働者や経営者に賃金、役員俸給、企業法人所得として分配 支出面⇒支出国民所得、生活や生産に必要なものを購入・支出した金額 三面等価の原則＝どの面から見てもそれらの金額は一致 国民経済計算（national account）＝それらの国民所得を測定し計算すること ミクロ経済学＝価格分析（price analysis）＝消費者や企業など個々の経済主体の経済活動を分析 マクロ経済学＝所得分析（income analysis）＝一国経済全体の集計的な経済活動を分析

3 １．Value Added and National Income 付加価値と国民所得
Profit and Loss Statement = document to record annual flow of productive activity of a firm Sales revenue = revenue including taxes such as consumption tax Raw material costs = purchase expenses paid to producers of raw materials Wages / salary expenses = remuneration for labor services put into production Depreciation expenses = depreciation costs of machinery equipments used for production in this term, which are converted to the value of products Indirect tax = the amount of indirect taxes such as consumption tax paid from the income to the government Subsidies = subsidies received from the government Profit = Total Revenue－ Total Cost＝ remuneration for corporate productive activities, which belongs to capital owners who invested to the company 損益計算書＝ある企業の年間の生産活動の流れ・ フローを記録 販売収入＝消費税などの税込みの収入 原材料費＝原材料の生産者に支払った購入費 賃金俸給費＝投入した労働用益に対する報酬 減価償却費＝今期の生産に使った機械設備の 減耗費用、 生産物の価値に転化 間接税＝収入のうちから消費税など間接税を 政府に支払った額 補助金＝政府から受け取った補助金 利潤＝総収入－総費用＝企業の生産活動への報酬、出資した資本所有者に帰属

4 １B．Value Added and National Income 付加価値と国民所得
Value added = total amount of production - amount of intermediate input= Value of final products National income (NI) = Total value added of all firms in one country = Total value added = National income at factor cost = total remunerations for production factors National income at market price = Net National Products=NNP = National income of factor cost + indirect tax – subsidy    factor cost - market price = indirect tax – subsidy Net National　Products + depreciation expenses = Gross National Product; GNP 　= Gross National Income (GNI) Gross = depreciation expenses Gross National Income (GNI) - depreciation expenses = Net National Income (NNI) Gross concept - net concept = depreciation expenses 付加価値（value added）＝総生産額－中間投入財（intermediate input）の額 ＝最終生産物（final products）の価値 国民所得（national income: NI）＝一国の全企業の付加価値の合計＝総付加価値 ＝要素費用表示の国民所得（national income at factor cost）＝生産要素への総報酬 市場価格表示の国民所得（national income at market price）＝国民純生産 ＝要素費用表示の国民所得＋間接税－補助金 ∴要素費用表示－市場価格表示＝間接税－補助金 国民純生産＋減価償却費＝国民総生産GNP＝国民総所得（gross national income: GNI） 　∴総（gross）＝粗＝減価償却費 国民総所得（gross national income: GNI）－減価償却費＝純国民所得（net national income: NNI） 　∴総概念－純概念＝減価償却費

5 ２．Gross National Income & Gross Domestic Products 国民総所得と国内総生産
Gross National Product (GNP) ⇒ Gross National Income (GNI) after the revision of the System of National Account (SNA), in "Citizen" = a subject who has a nationality of that or foreign country and resides in that country for more than six months. A member of a foreign embassy, ​​a consulate, or a stationed foreign army, etc. are not "citizens“, even if they live in Japan for more than six months. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) = Total value added of goods and services produced in that country "Domestic" = a subject who lives in the territory of that country and has a nationality of that or foreign country. Migrant foreign workers and members of Japanese branch of foreign company are “domestic” residents, even if they have lived in Japan for less than six months. 国民総生産（gross national product: GNP）⇒2000年国民経済計算体系（System of National Account: SNA）の改訂で国民総所得 「国民」＝その国に通常は6ヶ月以上居住する当該国籍を持つ主体および外国籍の主体。外国の大使館、領事館、駐留軍隊などは在日でも「国民」ではない 国内総生産（gross domestic product: GDP）＝「国内」で生産された財貨・サービスの総付加価値 「国内」＝その国の領土に居住する当該国籍を持つ主体および外国籍の主体。出稼ぎ労働者や外国企業の在日支店などは、6ヶ月未満であっても「国内」居住

6 ２B．Gross National Income & Gross Domestic Products 国民総所得と国内総生産
GDP had been used instead of GNP from 1993 according to UN recommendations Gross National Income GNI = Gross National Product GNP= Gross Domestic Product GDP + income receipt from foreign countries - income payment to foreign countries National Concept - Domestic Concept = income receipt from foreign countries - income payment to foreign countries = net income receipt from foreign countries In Japan, income receipts from overseas are greater than income payments to foreign countries, and therefore GNP is greater than GDP 1993年からは国連の勧告に従って国内総生産GDPを用いる 国民総所得GNI＝国民総生産GNP＝国内総生産GDP＋国外からの所得受取－国外への所得支払 国民概念－国内概念＝国外からの所得受取－国外への所得支払＝国外からの純所得受取 日本では国外からの所得受取が国外への所得支払より大きいので、国民総生産の方が国内総生産よりもやや大きくなる

7 ３．Scope and Evaluation of Gross Domestic Product 国内総生産の範囲と評価
<Principle> （１）First of all, intermediate input goods or intermediate goods should not be counted in duplicate （２）Second, only the goods and services traded on the market are counted <Exception> (1) Self-consumption of farmers and the imputed rent of the owner's house are counted (2) Government’s services or public goods such as firefighting, police, defense, national roads, public facilities, administrative services, etc. are counted by government expenditure as expenses instead of tax revenue <原則> まず第1に、中間投入財ないし中間財を重複して集計してはならない 第2は、集計の対象となるのは市場で取引される財貨・サービスだけ <例外> 第1は、農家の自家消費や持ち家の帰属家賃（imputed rent）は集計する 第2は、消防、警察、国防、国道、公共施設、行政サービスなど、政府の提供するサービスや公共財は、租税収入ではなく、費用としての政府支出額によって計上する

8 ４．Structure of Gross National Income 国民総所得の構成
Gross National Income GNI = Gross National Product GNP = produced national income = Total value added of all products of primary industry such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and mining, of secondary industry such as manufacturing industry and construction industry, and of tertiary industry such as wholesale / retail distribution industry, service industry, finance / insurance industry, transportation / communication industry, real estate industry, public affairs etc. Gross National Product = Value added of final products of all industries = Net National Product + depreciation expenses = Gross Domestic Product + (income receipt from overseas - income payment to overseas) = Net Domestic Product + depreciation expenses + (income receipt from overseas - income payment to overseas) 国民総所得GNI＝国民総生産GNP＝生産国民所得（produced national income） ＝農林水産業や鉱業などの第1次産業、 製造業や建設業など第2次産業、 卸売り・小売りの流通業、サービス業、金融・保険業、運輸・通信業、不動産業、公務など第3次産業の生産物のすべての付加価値の合計 国民総生産GNP＝全産業の最終生産物の付加価値 ＝国民純生産＋減価償却費 ＝国内総生産＋（海外からの所得受取－海外への所得支払） ＝国内純生産＋減価償却費＋（海外からの所得受取－海外への所得支払）

9 ４B．Structure of Gross National Income 国民総所得の構成
Distributed National Income = employees’ income + firms’ income + property income + (indirect tax - subsidies) Firms’ income = corporate income + individual owners’ income Personal income= employees’ income + individual owners’ income Individual disposable income = personal income - individual direct tax - social security contribution money + transferred income 分配国民所得（distributed national income） ＝雇用者所得＋企業所得＋財産所得＋（間接税－補助金） 企業所得＝法人所得＋個人業主所得 個人所得＝雇用者所得＋個人業主所得 個人可処分所得＝個人所得－個人直接税－社会保障負担金＋移転所得

10 ４C．Structure of Gross National Income 国民総所得の構成
Gross National Expenditure (GNE), expended national income, aggregate demand Gross National Expenditure GNE = private final consumption + total capital formation (=investment) +government final consumption + Overseas current surplus (= export - import = net export) = Gross Domestic Expenditure GDE + net income receipts from overseas 国民総支出（gross national expenditure: GNE）、支出国民所得（expended national income）、総需要（aggregate demand） 国民総支出GNE＝民間最終消費＋総資本形成（投資）＋政府支出 ＋海外経常余剰(＝輸出－輸入＝純輸出) ＝国内総支出GDE＋海外所得の純受取

11 ５．Principle of Three-sided Equivalence of National Income 三面等価の原則
Produced National Income PNI =Private Value Added + Government Value Added = Distributed National Income DNI =Employees’ income + Firms’ income + Indirect taxes-Subsidies + Depreciation = Expended National Income ENI = Private consumption + Private investment + Government Expenditure + Export - Import Gross National Product GNP = Distributed Gross National Income GNI = Gross National Expenditure GNE It also holds for Gross Domestic Income GDI. Gross Domestic Product GDP = Distributed Gross Domestic Income GDI = Gross Domestic Expenditure GDE It also holds for Net Domestic Product (NDP). Net Domestic Product NDP = Distributed Net Domestic Income NDI = Net Domestic Expenditure NDE Principle of Three-Sided Equivalence of National Income 生産国民所得＝分配国民所得＝支出国民所得 　 国民総生産GNP＝分配面の国民総所得GNI＝国民総支出GNE 国内総所得GDIについても成り立つ。 　 国内総生産GDP＝分配面の国内総所得GDI＝国内総支出GDE 国内純生産（net domestic products; NDP）についても成り立つ。 　　国内純生産NDP＝分配面の国内純所得NDI＝国内純支出NDE 国民所得の三面等価の原則（Principle of Three-Sided Equivalence of National Income）

12 ６．Nominal & Real Values, Deflator, Price Index 名目値と実質値、デフレーター、物価指数
To evaluate Gross Domestic Product at current price ⇒ Nominal Gross Domestic Products (nominal GDP)= Real Gross Domestic Products (real GDP) × GDP deflator Price of consumer goods= p1, p2, ……, pn , quantity= q1, q2, ……, qn Total value of Consumer goods = p1 q1＋p2 q2＋……＋pn qn ＝Σpi qi Total nominal value of consumer goods in base year = Σpi 0qi0 Total nominal value of consumer goods in year t = Σpi tqit To assume the price in t year to remain unchanged as pi 0 ⇒ total nominal value of consumer goods calculated with the prices in the base year pi 0 = Σpi 0qit "How much will it cost to buy the quantity in the compared year at the base year price" ="Total value of consumer goods measured with unchanged prices“ 国内総生産を時価（current price）で評価⇒名目国内総生産（nominal gross domestic products: nominal GDP） ＝実質国内総生産（real gross domestic products: real GDP）×GDPデフレーター 消費財の価格＝p1, p2, ……, pn 、 数量＝q1, q2, ……, qn 消費財総額＝p1 q1＋p2 q2＋……＋pn qn ＝Σpi qi 基準年の名目消費財総額＝Σpi 0qi0 t年の名目消費財総額＝Σpi tqit t年の価格が0年のままpi 0と不変⇒基準年の価格pi 0で計算した名目消費財総額＝Σpi 0qit 「基準年次の価格で比較時の数量を買ったらいくらになるか」＝「不変価格で測った消費財総額」

13 ６B．Nominal & Real Values, Deflator, Price Index 名目値と実質値、デフレーター、物価指数
Consumption goods deflator＝Total amount of consumption goods in a comparative year/Total amount of consumption goods measured by the constant prices To calculate real GDP using Paasche type price index (Paasche index) Real GDP = Nominal Consumption / Consumer Goods Price Index + Nominal Investment / Investment Goods Price Index + Nominal Inventory Investment / Inventory Price Index + Nominal Fiscal Expenditure / Fiscal Expenditure Price Index + Nominal Export / Export Goods Price Index - Nominal Import / Import Goods Price index GDP deflator = nominal GDP / real GDP × 100 This is called an implicit deflator パーシェ型物価指数（Paasche index）を使って実質GDPを計算 実質GDP＝名目消費／消費財物価指数＋名目投資／投資財物価指数＋名目在庫投資／在庫物価指数＋名目財政支出／財政支出物価指数＋名目質輸出／輸出財物価指数－名目輸入／輸入財物価指数 GDPデフレーター＝名目GDP／実質GDP×100 これをインプリシット・デフレーター（implicit deflator）という

14 ６C．Nominal & Real Values, Deflator, Price Index 名目値と実質値、デフレーター、物価指数
Consumer Price Index (CPI), Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) (Former Wholesale Price Index, WPI) = “If in the comparative year you buy the same quantity of goods and services as you bought in the base year , how much will expenditure increase under the new prices of comparative year? "⇒ Laspeyres index CPI＝Total amount of consumption goods in a comparative year/Total amount of consumption goods in the base year 消費者物価指数（Consumers Price Index: CPI）、企業物価指数（旧卸売物価指数、Corporate Goods Price Index: CGPI） ＝「基準年次に買った財貨・サービスの数量を、比較年次にもそのまま買うとすれば、比較年次の新しい価格のもとではいくら支出が増えるか」⇒ラスパイレス型物価指数（Laspeyres index）

15 ６D．Nominal & Real Values, Deflator, Price Index 名目値と実質値、デフレーター、物価指数
Figure 11-3.　Nominal and real GDP in Japan (trillion yen, based on prices at 2005 base year ) 日本の名目GDPと実質GDP（単位：兆円、実質値は2005年価格基準）

16 ７．Original Data & Seasonally Adjusted Data 原数値と季節調整値
National Income Statistics ... Published every 3 months = quarterly Data obtained by summarizing individual statistical data as it is = original data For salary payment in Japan, bonuses are paid twice a year in July and December. Seasonal fluctuations are that an economic downturn is clear in the January - March and April - June quarters, an economic upturn is noticeable in the July- September and the October - December quarters. Seasonal fluctuations ⇒ Seasonal adjustment is necessary, seasonally adjusted data Methods by U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau, X - 11, X ARIMA ⇒ Seasonally variable factors and patterns in Japan and the US are different, so seasonal variation factors can be adjusted only insufficiently and partly. ⇒ As a seasonally adjusted method, it is better to use the data compared with that of the same quarter of the previous year not with that of the previous quarter Correlation coefficient ... The Composite Index, CI of the business trend index has a correlation coefficient of 2.5% with the real GDP growth rate compared with that of the previous quarter , but 18% with the real GDP growth rate compared with that of the same quarter of the previous year . 国民所得統計…3ヶ月毎＝四半期毎に公表 個別の統計データをそのまま集計したデータ＝原数値（original data） 日本では給与支払いにおいて、賞与（ボーナス）が7月と12月に年二回支払. 1~3月期と4~6月期は景気低迷で、7~9月期と10~12月期は景気活況の季節変動が顕著。 季節変動⇒季節調整（seasonal adjustment）が必要、季節調整値（seasonally adjusted data） 米商務省センサス局法X-11、X-12-ARIMA⇒日米の季節変動型は違うので季節変動要因を不十分にしか調整できない ⇒季節調整値としては前期比ではなく前年同期比が優れている 相関係数…景気動向指数のCIは、前期比実質GDP成長率とわずか2.5％の相関係数しかない 前年同期比実質GDP成長率とは18％の相関係数

17 ７B．Original Data & Seasonally Adjusted Data 原数値と季節調整値
Figure Real Growth Rate of GDP (the data compared with that of the same quarter of the previous year and with that of the previous quarter) 実質GDP成長率（四半期データの前期比と 前年同期比） Figure Composite Index of Business Fluctuations, Correspondent Series (monthly data) 景気動向指数CI一致系列（月次データ）

18 ８．Gross National Welfare 国民総福祉
It is hard to calculate the monetary amount of leisure and living clearance Public nuisances are also hard to calculate their monetary amount , such as air pollution, water pollution by factory wastewater, traffic congestion and noise, ground subsidence, destruction of the natural environment due to forest turbulence development, pollution due to ecosystem destruction, radioactive contamination due to nuclear accident. Gross National Welfare, Net National Welfare Tobin and Nordhouse developed a measure of economic welfare (MEW). 余暇時間（leisure）や生活のゆとりは金額計算ができない 大気汚染や工場排水による水質汚濁、交通の混雑や騒音、地盤沈下、森林乱開発などによる自然環境の破壊、生態系の破壊による公害、原発事故による放射能汚染など、公害（public nuisance）は金額計算が困難 国民総福祉（gross national welfare）、国民純福祉（net national welfare） トービンとノードハウスは経済的福祉指標（measure of economic welfare: MEW）

19 ９．National Income and National Wealth 国民所得と国富
National income produced yearly is a quantity of an economic flow for a certain period time (from January 1st to December １ｓｔ in calendar year) = flow ⇒ described ｂｙ profit and loss statement (PL) ⇒described by national income account National wealth, net national assets = a quantity of a stock at one point (for example December 31) ⇒ described by Balance Sheet (BS), or by National Assets · Liability Balance Table. Nominal GDP (seasonally adjusted) in 2016 is about 539 trillion yen, real GDP (seasonally adjusted) is about 524 trillion yen (base year is 2011 (Heisei 23)), National Net Wealth in 2015 is net wealth is about 3290 trillion yen, about 6 times as much as nominal GDP 年々生産される国民所得は、一定期間（暦年なら1月1日から12月31日まで）の経済流量＝フロー（flow）⇒損益計算書（profit and loss statement: PL）で記述 国民所得勘定で把握 国富（national wealth）、国民純資産（net national assets）＝一時点（例えば12月31日）におけるストック（stock）の経済量⇒貸借対照表（balance sheet: BS）で記載、国民資産・負債残高表で把握。 2016年の名目GDP（季節調整済）は約539兆円、実質GDP（季節調整済）は約524兆円（基準時は2011（平成23）年）、2015年の国富は正味資産（net wealth）で見て約3290兆円で、約6倍